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Prospects

BITCOIN PROPECTS

Bitcoin Prospects

Wealth

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  • Solo Unicorn

  • Entrepreneur

  • Multiple Business

  • Freedom

  • Success

  • Happy

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Bitcoin vs MBA: Which Path to Wealth is Faster?

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Bitcoin Investment vs CEO with MBA: A Comparative Analysis

This analysis compares the potential advantages and disadvantages of investing in Bitcoin versus pursuing a career as a CEO with an MBA degree. We'll examine a hypothetical 23 Bitcoin investment and contrast it with the typical career path of a CEO.

Bitcoin Investment for Early Adopters (23 BTC Example):
Potential for Exponential Returns: Based on Michael Saylor's projection of Bitcoin reaching $5 million by 2035, a 23 BTC investment (currently valued at $100,000 per BTC) could theoretically grow to $115 million. This vastly surpasses the potential earnings of a CEO with an average annual income of $260,000-$500,000.

Passive Income Potential: Bitcoin holders can potentially generate passive income through staking, leveraging or lending platforms, requiring minimal active management.

Decentralization and Control: Bitcoin's decentralized nature offers freedom and independence from central banks and government control, appealing to investors concerned about economic instability or government intervention.

Inflation Hedge: Bitcoin is often considered a hedge against inflation due to its limited supply, which could drive its value up as fiat currencies depreciate.

CEO with MBA Degree:
High Earnings: Top CEOs can earn millions, far exceeding the average salary. Experience and performance drive compensation.

Leadership & Impact: CEOs shape company strategy and positively influence stakeholders.

Networking: CEOs build valuable connections with industry leaders, opening doors to new opportunities.

Prestige: CEO roles offer significant recognition and prestige.
Job Security: Successful CEOs often enjoy a high degree of job security.

Key Considerations:
Risk: Bitcoin is highly volatile, and future valuations are uncertain. CEO roles offer high reward but also high stress and high pressure leading to early ageing.

Time: Bitcoin investment is passive, hold, involve less time and more time with family; CEO roles are demanding, require time and dedication.

Personal Fit: The best path depends on individual interests, values, and risk tolerance. Some prioritize financial gain and freedom, others leadership and influence.

Conclusion:
Both Bitcoin and a CEO career have pros and cons. The right choice depends on your financial goals, risk tolerance, and values. Carefully weigh the benefits and drawbacks before deciding.

Personally, looks like investing Bitcoin is a better option than study MBA. Bitcoin provides more freedom, less stressful and enhance longevity.

What will you do? Choose Bitcoin invest or study MBA degree?

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MBA students are turning down 6-figure salaries at McKinsey to buy small businesses.

 

" The corporate dream is dead.
MBA students are turning down 6-figure salaries at McKinsey to buy small businesses.
As someone who did the same…
Here’s my take on the situation...":....
Continue Reading

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Crypto Intelligence : KAITO AI​


A fascinating development in the crypto fundraising landscape.

Here's a breakdown of the implications:

AI-Powered Token Launches: A New Paradigm?
Kaito AI's $1B+ token launch, bypassing VCs and selectively distributing tokens based on AI-driven reputation analysis, marks a potential shift in crypto fundraising. Memoria's similar approach on Avalanche further reinforces this trend.

The New Model:
AI-Driven Vetting: AI analyzes social history, governance participation, on-chain behavior, and "value alignment" to identify deserving token recipients.
Transparent & On-Chain: The entire process is verifiable on the blockchain.
Reputation-Based Access: Access is determined by digital reputation and participation, not just capital.

Potential Implications:
Reputation-Based Finance: On-chain identity dictates access to capital.
Social Capital as Collateral: A strong track record is essential; dumping tokens could damage reputation.

The Twist: A New Way to Avoid Down Rounds?
Projects that raised at inflated valuations in 2021 now face a dilemma: they need more funding but can't return to VCs without accepting a significant valuation markdown.

The Old vs. The New:

Old Model:
Raise at an inflated valuation.
Burn cash.
Face a brutal down round.

New Model:
Launch a token, bypassing VCs.
Maintain control and valuation.
Potentially use retail investors as exit liquidity.

The Big Question:
Is this the next evolution of fundraising, democratizing access and rewarding genuine community engagement? Or is it a clever way to extract value from retail investors at their expense, potentially dumping tokens on them if necessary?

Key Considerations:
AI Bias: How is "value alignment" defined, and could it lead to biases in token distribution?
Retail Investor Protection: How can retail investors be protected from potential manipulation or rug pulls?
Long-Term Sustainability: Will these projects deliver genuine value to token holders, or are they primarily designed for short-term gains?

This new model raises important questions about the future of fundraising in the crypto space. While it offers potential benefits, it also carries risks that need to be carefully considered.

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Source: Marc Baumann

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Bitcoin Distribution chart from November 2024
Bitcoin distribution breakdowns:

Whale Address (100-1,000,000): 1.8% total addresses own 92.6% total Bitcoin
Mid-Range Address (1-100): 14.8% total addresses own 5.5% total Bitcoin
Small Address (<1): 83.4% total addresses own 0.9% total Bitcoin

Key Observations:
Highly Uneven Distribution: The chart vividly illustrates the highly concentrated nature of Bitcoin ownership. A small percentage of addresses hold a large percentage of the total Bitcoin supply.

"Whale" Dominance: The top few categories ([100-1,000], [1,000-10,000], [10,000-100,000], [100,000-1,000,000]) hold a significant portion of the total Bitcoin. This highlights the influence of "whales" in the Bitcoin market.

Large Number of Small Holders: There's a vast number of addresses holding very small amounts of Bitcoin. This suggests a broad base of participation, though many hold fractional amounts.

"Mid-range holders" This is a neutral term that simply describes their position in the distribution. They hold more than the majority of individual holders (<1 BTC), but significantly less than the whales (100+ BTC)

Decreasing Address Count with Increasing Balance: As the balance range increases, the number of addresses decreases dramatically. This is a classic pattern seen in wealth distribution.

Percentage of Total Bitcoin: The "% BTC (Total)" column clearly shows how the majority of Bitcoin is held by a tiny fraction of addresses.

Implications:
Centralization Concerns: The highly concentrated distribution raises concerns about centralization and potential market manipulation.

Accessibility Issues: The large number of small holders suggests that Bitcoin is accessible to many, but the wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few.

Potential for Price Volatility: The dominance of whales means that their trading activity can significantly impact the price of Bitcoin.

Economic Inequality: The distribution pattern reflects broader trends of economic inequality.

Overall:
This chart provides a clear and compelling picture of Bitcoin's distribution. It's a valuable tool for understanding the dynamics of the Bitcoin market and the potential challenges it faces

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Owning Bitcoin advantages and disadvantages.

Advantages:

  • High Returns: Potential for significant price appreciation.

  • Inflation Hedge: Limited supply, decentralized.

  • Diversification: Uncorrelated with traditional assets.

  • Privacy and Control: Decentralized, less subject to regulation.

  • Global Accessibility: Convenient for international transactions.

  • Growing Adoption: Increasing infrastructure and ease of use.

  • Best use case: Bitcoin-backed loan without selling BTC


Disadvantages:

  • Bitcoin devaluation: in excessive hoarding

  • Potential every Bitcoin seed word leaked 

  • Bitcoin manipulation: Bitcoin's market is susceptible to manipulation by large holders, institutions, and governments. One tactic involves institutions large volume short-selling Bitcoin on exchanges to artificially lower the price, followed by profitable large volume buy-backs at discounted rates via over-the-counter (OTC) trades that minimize slippage.

  • Volatility: High price fluctuations.

  • Security Risks: Hacking, theft, loss of funds.

  • Safety Risks: Hostages, kidnaps, ransom, physical attacks

  • Regulatory Uncertainty: Evolving regulations.

  • Complexity: Can be challenging to understand and use.

  • Mental Stress: Worries about Bitcoin loss on hot and cold wallets

  • Bitcoin Bust: Strategy and Bitcoin miners in business losses can reduce Bitcoin value drastically.

  • Cold Wallet Hack: Bybit Exchange: Ethereum multisig cold wallet has fallen victim to a sophisticated hack.

  • "The hackers manipulated the wallet’s signing process using a forged UI, which appeared legitimate to the wallet signers. The interface, which seemed to come from Safe, displayed the correct transaction details. However, the hidden message altered the smart contract logic, enabling the attacker to take full control of the cold wallet. "

  • Major mining companies like MARA and RIOT face bankruptcy risk from business losses and leveraged strategies. This could force them to liquidate Bitcoin reserves, significantly lowering its price. Widespread mining bankruptcies would also decrease Bitcoin's hashrate, potentially increasing network vulnerability, despite the difficulty adjustment.

  • The financial viability of leading Bitcoin mining companies, including MARA and RIOT, is under severe pressure. They are grappling with substantial business losses due to Bitcoin's price volatility and escalating energy expenses. Furthermore, their reliance on leveraged strategies has amplified their debt obligations, significantly increasing bankruptcy risks.

    If numerous mining companies go bankrupt, the network's hashrate—the processing power securing transactions—would decrease significantly. This reduction makes Bitcoin more vulnerable to 51% attacks, where a single entity could gain control. While the difficulty adjustment mechanism automatically adjusts mining difficulty to maintain block times, it cannot fully prevent this increased vulnerability, especially in the immediate aftermath of a hashrate drop. If a single Bitcoin miner or group of miners working in concert could obtain a simple majority of the computational power on a blockchain, the miner(s) could manipulate information on the blockchain eg double-spending attack. increasing the total hashrate and making it more expensive to conduct attacks. This approach is especially effective against a 51% attack, where an attacker must control more than 50% of the network’s computational power to manipulate the network. As the hashrate of the network  thereby increases, the cost of carrying out such an attack also increases, making the network more secure.

  • (  'I wonder what proportion of the people involved in making that decision could describe the Bitcoin mining process in any detail?. Bitcoins are not mined. Block headers are hashed using the publicly available SHA256 algorithm, along with a random nonce (number used once) until the process produces a hash with (currently) 20 leading zeros, in a competition between miners.
    New coins are then minted cryptographically (actual Bitcoins don’t exist physically) and are paid as a reward (currently just over 3 Bitcoins) to the winning miner, approximately every ten minutes.
    The entire process is an expensive farce that creates Ponzi coins out of thin air and intended to deceive investors but benefit miners.
    The widely stated claim that the hashing process has some kind of value that benefits other industries, thus giving Bitcoin its value (based on this “proof of work”) is an outright lie. The entire Bitcoin project is fraudulent from the ground up'. Source: mark J )

  • Bitcoin risk: 
    🔹 Getting hacked and losing everything.

  • 🔹 Sending funds to the wrong address—no refunds in crypto

  • 🔹 Forgetting your private keys or passwords—your fortune is gone forever.
    🔹 The market turning against you—just as fast as it made you rich.
    🔹 Falling for sophisticated scams: fake crypto projects, lookalike domains (crypto.com vs. crypto.con), and fraudulent websites that mirror real ones just to bait you in.

  • Decentralization: The marketing of "decentralization" often masks a centralized reality where a single entity holds sway. In such cases, governance is a mere performance. The lasting damage comes from the precedent: a project's decision to fundamentally alter its tokenomics years after its promises undermines the long-term viability and trust in the entire crypto space.

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Business Acquisition
 

HOW to acquire your own portfolio of small businesses WITHOUT using your own money?

 

This LinkedIn post presents a compelling argument that business acquisition, particularly of "boring businesses," is accessible to individuals beyond the wealthy, even with little to no personal capital. The author shares a blueprint based on their own experience of acquiring seven businesses that generated $836,000 in profit last year.

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Here's a breakdown of the author's $836k/year blueprint:

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Core Idea: Acquire established, cash-flowing businesses in recession-proof industries using government-backed SBA loans and private investor funding for the down payment.

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Step-by-Step Blueprint:

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  1. Identify Recession-Proof Industries: Focus on sectors that tend to remain stable regardless of economic downturns. Examples provided are HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), Accounting, and ATMs.

  2. Target Specific Business Characteristics: Look for businesses that meet the following criteria:

    • Strong Monthly Cash Flow: Generating $10,000 or more per month.

    • Owner Retirement Motivated: Sellers looking to retire may be more flexible with terms.

    • Manageable Price Range: Businesses priced between $500,000 and $2 million.

    • Established Track Record: Businesses operating for 5 years or longer, indicating stability.

  3. Leverage SBA Loans: Utilize Small Business Administration (SBA) loans, which are government-backed. The US government encourages small business ownership, so SBA guarantees a portion of the loan to the bank. This significantly reduces the lender's risk, making it easier for individuals without substantial personal wealth to secure financing.

  4. Secure Down Payment through Private Investors: For the typical 10% down payment required for SBA loans, the author suggests finding private investors willing to cover this cost in exchange for a percentage of equity (in this case, 15%). This allows for acquiring businesses with $0 of the buyer's own money. The investor benefits from immediate cash flow based on their equity stake.

 

Illustrative Math:

The post provides an example of a $1 million business generating $350,000( $29167/month) in annual profit to demonstrate the financial viability of this approach:

  • Cost $650000 per year

  • $144,000 ($12,000/month) per year in debt service (loan repayment).

  • $48,000 ($4,000/month) per year to investor (15% equity).

  • $60,000-$84,000 ($$5,000 - $7,000/month) per year to General Manager (GM).

After these expenses, the buyer (using the author's blueprint) is left with $8,000/month ($96,000/year), having put down none of their own money.

Author's Success Story:

The author emphasizes that they have personally used this formula to build a portfolio of seven businesses yielding an annual profit of $836,000. They contrast their current situation (working 20 hours/week with family time) with their previous demanding role at JP Morgan (60 hours/week).

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Key Takeaway:

The post aims to demystify business acquisition and present a practical, step-by-step method for individuals without significant personal wealth to acquire established, cash-flowing businesses by strategically utilizing SBA loans and private investment. It challenges the common perception that business ownership through acquisition is solely for the rich.

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Feedback:

  • "SBA loans + private investors = pure gold for scaling without personal risk – brilliant!"

  • "Combining SBA and investor partnerships for solid returns makes perfect sense."

  • "Smart way to use other people's money to create multiple income streams!"

  • "Targeting that small business sweet spot for owner exits is a smart move – too small for PE, perfect for this."

  • "Love that you skipped the startup grind and went straight to cash flow. Buying working businesses beats chasing shiny ideas."

  • "Simple, smart way to build wealth and help owners retire!"

  • "Helping owners transition while keeping teams shows the human side of acquisitions."

  • "Small business acquisition makes total sense with established customer value and efficiency."

  • "Clean process with solid returns."

  • "Smart to leverage existing businesses and cash flow instead of starting from zero."

  • "Using private investors for the down payment is a smart win-win with low personal risk."

  • "Focusing on established, cash-flowing businesses is solid business sense – beats startup uncertainty."

  • "Your acquisition insights are inspiring! Anyone can find opportunities with the right approach and financing."

  • "Finding established businesses with steady cash flow is a smart way to reduce risk and build wealth."

  • "Business acquisition is definitely better than startup risks."

  • "Incredible insight – business opportunities are everywhere, and financing empowers everyone."

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Source: Ben Kelly

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Global Business Acquisitions

 

Strategy to acquire a portfolio of small businesses globally without using your own money, specifically leveraging government-backed SBA loans and private investor funding for the down payment.

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Here's a breakdown of how this concept might apply globally, along with important considerations and examples of recession-proof industries:

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The Core Strategy:

The fundamental idea remains the same as outlined in the initial post:

  1. Identify Viable Businesses: Find established, cash-flowing small businesses in recession-proof industries where the owner is looking to sell (often for retirement).

  2. Secure Government-Backed Loans: Utilize loan programs similar to the SBA loans in the US. Many countries have government initiatives to support small business ownership and acquisition. These programs often offer guarantees that reduce risk for lenders.  

  3. Attract Private Investors for Down Payment: Find investors willing to provide the required down payment (or equity injection) in exchange for a share of the business's equity and future profits.  

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Applying This Globally:

The challenge lies in the specifics of each country's financial and regulatory landscape. Here's a breakdown of how to approach this globally:

1. Research Government-Backed Loan Programs (Global Equivalent of SBA):

  • Start by identifying countries with active government programs supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Many developed and developing nations have such initiatives to encourage entrepreneurship and economic growth.

  • Look for programs that offer loan guarantees or subsidies for business acquisition. The terms, eligibility criteria, and the percentage of the loan guaranteed will vary significantly from country to country.

  • Examples (Illustrative - require specific research):

    • Canada: Canada Small Business Financing Program (CSBFP)  

    • United Kingdom: Government-backed Start Up Loans and potentially other SME financing schemes.  

    • Australia: Various state and federal government grants and loan schemes for small businesses.  

    • Germany: KfW (Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau) offers various financing programs for SMEs.  

    • European Union: The European Investment Fund (EIF) provides guarantees and other instruments to support SME financing through local banks.  

    • Japan: Japan Finance Corporation (JFC) offers loans for small businesses.  

    • Many other countries in Asia, Africa, and South America will have their own development banks and SME support programs.  

2. Identify Recession-Proof Industries (Global Perspective):

Building on the previous list, here are some recession-proof industries with a global relevance:

  • Essential Consumer Goods:

    • Basic Food Production and Processing

    • Staple Food Retail (Grocery Stores, Discount Markets)  

    • Household Cleaning and Hygiene Products

    • Basic Personal Care Items

  • Essential Services:

    • Healthcare (Hospitals, Clinics, Elder Care, Pharmaceuticals)

    • Utilities (Water, Electricity, Gas)  

    • Waste Management and Sanitation Services

    • Basic Telecommunications and Internet Services

    • Essential Transportation (Public Transit, Logistics for Necessities)

    • Funeral Homes and Related Services

  • Discount and Value-Oriented Sectors:

    • Discount Retail Chains

    • Repair and Maintenance Services (Appliances, Vehicles, Housing)

    • Thrift and Resale Businesses

  • Specific Niches:

    • Veterinary Services (Essential Pet Care)

    • Basic Education and Childcare

    • Security Services

3. Finding Private Investors Globally:

  • Your Network: Start with your existing network of contacts who might be interested in investment opportunities.

  • Online Platforms: Explore global angel investor networks and platforms that connect entrepreneurs with investors. Be prepared to clearly articulate your business acquisition strategy and the potential returns.

  • Local Investor Groups: Research investor groups and angel networks in the specific countries you are targeting for acquisitions.

  • High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs): Identify wealthy individuals in your target regions who might be looking for investment opportunities beyond traditional markets.

  • Family Offices: Some family offices may have mandates to invest in promising small businesses.

 

Key Considerations for a Global Strategy:

  • Country-Specific Regulations: Each country will have its own laws and regulations regarding business ownership, foreign investment, and financial instruments. Thorough legal and financial due diligence in each target country is crucial.

  • Cultural and Language Barriers: Effective communication and understanding of local business practices are essential.

  • Economic Stability and Risk Assessment: While targeting recession-proof industries, you still need to assess the overall economic stability and specific risks associated with each country and business.

  • Due Diligence Challenges: Conducting thorough due diligence on businesses located in different countries can be more complex and costly.

  • Building Trust with Investors Remotely: Establishing trust with private investors when you are not geographically close requires strong communication and a compelling track record (if you have one).

  • Currency Exchange Risks: Be aware of potential fluctuations in currency exchange rates and their impact on returns.

  • Local Partnerships: Consider partnering with local experts (legal, financial, operational) in each target country to navigate the complexities.​​

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Key Takeaway:

The post aims to demystify business acquisition and present a practical, step-by-step method for individuals without significant personal wealth to acquire established, cash-flowing businesses by strategically utilizing SBA loans and private investment. It challenges the common perception that business ownership through acquisition is solely for the rich.

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Acquiring a portfolio of small businesses globally without your own money is a challenging but potentially achievable goal. It requires extensive research into government support programs in various countries, a deep understanding of recession-proof industries on a global scale, and a strong ability to attract and manage relationships with private investors across different cultures and legal frameworks. The fundamental blueprint remains the same, but the execution becomes significantly more complex when operating internationally.

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How To Buy a $1M Business without Using Your Own Money?

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Let's explore the financial feasibility of acquiring a AUD $1 million Australian business generating AUD $350,000 annual profit (AUD $29,167 monthly) using a no-money-down strategy similar to the US SBA model with private investor funding.

 

Scenario Assumptions:

  • Government-Backed Loan: Assuming an Australian government program (like the CSBFP) covers a significant portion (e.g., 90%) of the AUD $1 million purchase.

  • Down Payment: A 10% (AUD $100,000) down payment is needed.

  • Private Investor: An investor covers the AUD $100,000 down payment for 15% business equity.

  • Loan Interest: An estimated 6% annual interest rate on the government-backed loan.

  • Loan Term: A 10-year (120-month) loan.

  • General Manager (GM) Salary: Estimated AUD $7,500 monthly.

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Monthly Financial Breakdown:

  • Purchase Price: AUD $1,000,000

  • Loan (90%): AUD $900,000

  • Down Payment (Investor): AUD $100,000

  • Estimated Monthly Loan Payment: ~AUD $10,000

  • Monthly to Investor (15% Profit): AUD $4,375

  • Estimated Monthly GM Salary: AUD $7,500

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Estimated Monthly Cash Flow:

AUD $29,167 (Profit) - AUD $10,000 (Loan) - AUD $4,375 (Investor) - AUD $7,500 (GM) = AUD $7,292

Estimated Annual Cash Flow: AUD $7,292 * 12 = AUD $87,504

 

Australian Viability:

Based on these assumptions, acquiring a AUD $1 million business with AUD $350,000 profit using this no-money-down approach in Australia appears financially viable, potentially yielding around AUD $7,292 monthly (AUD $87,504 annually).

 

Summary Monthly:

  • + Profit AUD $29,167

  • - Loan AUD $10,000

  • - Investor AUD $4,375

  • - General Manager AUD $7,500

  • + Net Profit AUD $7,292

After these expenses, the buyer is left with AUD $7,292 monthly ((AUD $87,504 annually), having put down none of their own money.

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Using this formula, you can rinse and repeat to build a portfolio of 7+ businesses generating $613,000 in annual profit, allowing you to reduce your work week from 60 hours at an office job to just 20 hours with more family time.

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Crucial Australian Considerations:

  • Government Loan Programs: Thoroughly research specific Australian government business acquisition loan terms and eligibility. 90% coverage is an assumption.

  • Interest Rates: Real-time Australian business loan interest rates will affect loan payments.

  • Investor Terms: Equity expectations of Australian private investors may vary.

  • Due Diligence: In-depth vetting of the business's financials is essential.

  • Operational Costs: Account for all business operating expenses.

  • Australian Economy: Consider the current and future economic climate in Australia.

 

Conclusion:

While this example suggests the potential for no-money-down business acquisition in Australia, extensive research into Australian loan programs, interest rates, investor landscape, and thorough due diligence are paramount. This scenario illustrates the possibility, but actual outcomes will depend on specific circumstances.

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Linkedin Posts:

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Can Bitcoin Remain a Safe Haven in an Inflating World?

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