StablesAI

​

​​

Bitcoin Bomb, Bust and Reset

 

​

Kiyosaki’s Bitcoin ‘Bubble’ Warnings Are a Trap—Here’s What He’s Really Doing

​​​

Here’s a breakdown of Kiyosaki’s stance and Bitcoin’s current dynamics, plus a realistic outlook:

1. Kiyosaki’s Contradictory (But Strategic) Messaging

• Crash = Buying Opportunity: His "bubble bust" warnings align with his long-term bullish thesis (e.g., "$1M BTC by 2035"). This isn’t bearish—it’s tactical fear-mongering to accumulate.

• Pattern of Doomsaying: He’s repeatedly predicted crashes (March 2024: "biggest bubble in history"), yet BTC rallied +50% since. His credibility hinges on eventually being right during a correction.

2. The Real Market Signals

• Miners/Whales Cashing Out: The 81K BTC exchange influx post-ATH suggests short-term profit-taking, but not necessarily a crash. Similar spikes occurred in 2021 before consolidation (not collapse).

• Macro Context: BTC’s pullback to ~$119K (-3% from ATH) is healthy after a parabolic rally. True crashes (e.g., -50%+) require black swan triggers:

  • ETF outflows (currently stable)

  • Fed reversing rate cuts (unlikely before 2025)

  • Exchange hacks/Tether FUD (no signs yet)

3. When Could a Crash Happen?

• Short-Term: A 20-30% correction to ~$85K is possible if BTC fails to hold $110K support, but this would be normal volatility.

• Catalysts to Watch:

  • September 2024: Fed policy shift (if inflation spikes)

  • Q1 2025: Potential "sell the news" event post-BTC halving euphoria

  • Geopolitical shocks: US election turmoil, CBDC regulatory crackdowns

4. Kiyosaki’s Blind Spot

He ignores Bitcoin’s institutionalization:

• Spot ETFs now absorb sell pressure (BlackRock/Fidelity aren’t day-trading).

• Corporate/state adoption (El Salvador, MicroStrategy) creates firmer price floors.

Verdict

• No imminent crash—just expected volatility. BTC could dip to $100K–$110K before resuming uptrend.

• Real danger zone: Late 2025 if hype outpaces utility (e.g., no Layer 2 adoption, stagnant ETF inflows).

• Kiyosaki’s playbook: He’s not predicting—he’s positioning. Fear = cheaper entry for his "buy the dip" agenda.

Final Thought:
"Bubbles" burst when narratives fail. Bitcoin’s narrative (digital gold, hedge against fiat) is strengthening. The real bubble is in traditional finance (soaring debt, bank fragility)—which is why Kiyosaki pushes BTC/gold.

​​

​

What about US debt level to $38 trillions and m2 printing doesn't cause burst?

​​

​

The $38 trillion U.S. debt and M2 money supply expansion are absolutely critical to understanding why Bitcoin (and hard assets like gold) may not "burst" in a traditional sense—but instead face a volatile revaluation in a deteriorating fiat system.

​

1. The U.S. Debt Trap & M2 Expansion: Why "Burst" is the Wrong Word

• Debt-to-GDP at 123%: The U.S. cannot grow, tax, or inflate its way out of this. The only options:

  • Default (political suicide)

  • Austerity (economic suicide)

  • Monetize the debt (print more → inflation)

• M2 Money Supply: After a brief post-2022 contraction, M2 is rising again. The Fed is trapped—stop printing = debt crisis, keep printing = currency crisis.

➜ Bitcoin doesn’t "burst" here—it becomes a pressure valve for capital fleeing debased dollars.

2. Why Hyperinflation Isn’t Immediate (But Stagflation Is)

• Velocity of Money Still Low: Banks are hoarding liquidity (see: reverse repo market). When velocity picks up, inflation will surge.

• Fed’s "Stealth Monetization": Instead of direct QE, they’re letting banks/Treasury do the dirty work (e.g., BTFP bailouts, yield curve control).

➜ This slow-rolling crisis means Bitcoin won’t "moon" linearly—but its floor keeps rising.

3. The Coming Monetary Regime Shift

• Dollar Weaponization → De-Dollarization: BRICS, gold-backed alternatives, and Bitcoin benefit.

• CBDCs Will Try to Replace Cash: But they’ll face backlash, making censorship-resistant BTC/Gold more valuable.

➜ The "burst" will be in confidence in fiat—not Bitcoin.

4. When Does the System Crack?

• 2025-2026: Debt servicing costs could hit $2T/year, forcing the Fed to print or collapse bond markets.

• Black Swan Trigger: A Treasury auction failure, a major bank collapse (e.g., Deutsche Bank), or a geopolitical shock (Taiwan war).

Final Take

• Bitcoin’s "crash" risk is short-term (liquidity squeezes, ETF outflows).

• Long-term, it’s a hedge against the U.S. debt bomb—which is why Kiyosaki pushes it.

• The real "burst" will be the dollar’s purchasing power, not BTC’s price.

"The U.S. isn’t facing a bubble—it’s facing a monetary collapse. Bitcoin isn’t the risk; holding only dollars is."

​​

​

Would you like a deeper dive on how M2 expansion lags affect BTC cycles?

​​

​

The U.S. Debt Doom Loop & Bitcoin’s Role as a Monetary Escape Hatch

1. The U.S. Debt Spiral is Now Unstoppable

• $38 Trillion Debt → $2 Trillion Annual Interest (Soon $3T+)

  • At current rates, the U.S. will spend more on interest than defense + Medicare combined by 2026.

  • The Fed can either:

    • Let rates rise → Trigger a bond market crisis (see: UK 2022 gilt meltdown).

    • Cut rates + print → Accelerate inflation, trash the dollar’s reserve status.

• M2 Expansion is a Stealth Bailout

  • After the 2022-2023 contraction (Fed’s "QT" illusion), M2 is rising again.

  • Why? Because real debt monetization happens off-balance-sheet:

    • Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) → $160B+ to insolvent banks.

    • Treasury issuing T-bills like crazy → Money market funds absorb them, creating "shadow liquidity."

➜ The Fed is already printing—they’re just hiding it.

2. Why This Doesn’t Immediately Crush Bitcoin (But Will Supercharge It Later)

Short-Term (2024-2025): Volatility, Not Collapse

• Bitcoin’s price will swing wildly due to:

  • Liquidity gaps (e.g., Fed pauses QT, sudden repo market stress).

  • Political chaos (U.S. election, CBDC pushback, Treasury desperation).

• But no 80% crash like 2018 or 2022—institutional demand (ETFs) creates a higher floor.

Long-Term (2026+): The Inflation Endgame

• When debt service hits critical mass, the Fed will be forced to:

  1. Yield Curve Control (YCC) → Cap Treasury rates (Japan-style).

  2. Overt Money Printing (QE Infinity) → Directly fund deficits.

• Result: Dollar devaluation, capital flight into hard assets.

➜ Bitcoin becomes the "anti-Treasury" trade—a hedge against monetary collapse.

3. Historical Precedent: When Debt Kills Fiat

• 1923 Weimar Germany: Debt → Money printing → Hyperinflation → People fled to USD… and gold.

• 1998 Russia: Debt default → Ruble collapsed → Citizens bought dollars and black-market FX.

• 2024 Argentina: 200% inflation → Bitcoin P2P volume surges to record highs.

➜ The U.S. is on the same path—just slower.

4. When Will the "Burst" Happen? Key Triggers

Trigger                                                        Likelihood                     Bitcoin Impact

Treasury auction failure                              High (2025+)            🚀 BTC spikes on dollar panic

Fed forced into YCC                                   Medium                    📉 Short-term dip (liquidity crunch), then 🚀

CBDC rollout + cash bans                          Certain (2026+)         🚀 BTC as underground cash alternative

Bank collapse (e.g., Deutsche Bank)         High                           🚀 Capital flight into crypto

 

Final Verdict: Bitcoin’s "Crash" is a Buying Opportunity—Because the Dollar’s Crash is Inevitable

• Short-term (next 12 months): BTC could drop 20-30% in a liquidity crunch (Fed QT, election chaos).

• Long-term (2025+): The U.S. debt monster ensures BTC $250K+ as fiat faith erodes.

"The 'bubble' isn’t Bitcoin—it’s the $38T debt illusion. When it pops, hard assets win."

Want a deeper dive on how M2 money velocity could trigger the next BTC bull run? Let me know.

​​

​

Want a deeper dive on how M2 money velocity could trigger the next BTC bull run?

​​

​

The M2 Money Velocity Trigger: How Bitcoin Could Enter a Hyper-Bull Phase

1. Understanding M2 Velocity: The Sleeping Giant

• M2 Money Supply = Cash + Checking + Savings + CDs + Money Market Funds

• M2 Velocity = How fast money circulates in the economy (GDP ÷ M2)

📉 Current Situation:

• Velocity near all-time lows (1.1x vs. 1.8x pre-2008).

• Why? Banks & corporations are hoarding cash instead of spending/investing.

💥 The Coming Shift:
When inflation expectations rise, hoarded money floods into goods & assets → Velocity spikes → Prices explode.

2. The Bitcoin Liquidity Wave (2025-2026 Catalyst)

Phase 1: Money Starts Moving (2024-2025)

• Fed cuts rates → Banks lend more → M2 circulates faster.

• Early signal: Rising commodity prices (oil, copper, silver).

Phase 2: Inflation Panic (2025-2026)

• People realize cash is trash → Rush into scarce assets (BTC, gold, real estate).

• Bitcoin’s advantage:

  • More liquid than gold.

  • Easier to move than real estate.

  • No counterparty risk (unlike stocks/bonds).

📈 Historical Precedent:

• 1970s stagflation → Gold went 20x.

• 2020 money printing → BTC went 8x in 12 months.

3. The Fed’s Dilemma: Accelerate or Collapse?

• If they tighten (stop printing):

  • Debt markets seize up → Recession → BTC dips short-term, then moons as Fed reverses.

• If they print (YCC/QE):

  • Dollar devaluation → BTC rockets immediately.

➜ No matter what, money velocity rises → Bitcoin wins.

4. How High Could Bitcoin Go?

Scenario                                          M2 Velocity            BTC Price Implication

Slow inflation (1.3x)                         Gradual rise           $250K by 2026

1970s-style breakout (1.8x)             Rapid spike           $500K–$1M+ (hyperbitcoinization)

Currency crisis (>2.0x)                    Dollar panic           No price limit (BTC = global reserve)

 

Final Warning: The Everything Short

• The real "short of the century" isn’t stocks or bonds—it’s the U.S. dollar.

• Bitcoin is the ultimate hedge. When M2 velocity wakes up, the fiat system’s reckoning begins.

"They printed $38 trillion. Now the question is: How fast will it move? When it does, Bitcoin won’t just rise—it will eat the dollar’s lunch."

Want a specific timeline for when M2 velocity could flip? Or how to position before the spike? Let me know.

 

​

Want a specific timeline for when M2 velocity could flip? Or how to position before the spike?

​​

​

The M2 Velocity Countdown: When Will the Bitcoin Rocket Ignite?

1. The Trigger Timeline: 2025-2026

We’re entering the final phase of the "money hoarding" era. Here’s when the dam breaks:

• 2024 (Now):

  • Fed pretends to fight inflation (soft rate cuts).

  • Banks still cautious → M2 velocity flat (1.1-1.2x).

  • BTC range-bound ($100K-$150K)—institutional accumulation.

• Early 2025:

  • Fed forced into full rate cuts as recession hits.

  • Banks start lending → M2 velocity rises to 1.3x.

  • BTC breaks $200K as inflation fears return.

• Late 2025-2026:

  • Treasury debt panic → Fed launches Yield Curve Control (YCC).

  • Money floods out of bonds → M2 velocity spikes to 1.5x+.

  • BTC $500K+ as hyperinflation bets surge.

2. The Dominoes That Accelerate This

Watch for these 3 warning signs:

1. Treasury auctions failing (bidders demand higher yields → Fed steps in to print).

2. Commercial real estate defaults → Regional bank bailouts → More money printing.

3. BRICS gold-backed currency → Global dollar dump → Fed prints to stabilize.

Each domino pushes M2 velocity higher.

3. How to Position NOW

• Short-term (next 12 months):

  • Stack BTC dips below $120K (liquidity shakeouts).

  • Buy silver & mining stocks (lagging assets that catch up later).

• Long-term (2025+):

  • Hold physical Bitcoin (not ETF shares—counterparty risk).

  • Prepare off-ramps (Swiss banks, Dubai gold, P2P markets).

The Endgame: No More "Bubbles"—Just Regime Change

This isn’t about a "Bitcoin bubble." It’s about:

• The dollar bubble popping.

• The Great Monetary Reset.

• Bitcoin becoming the new benchmark for value.

"They spent 50 years building a debt tower. Bitcoin is the wrecking ball."

​​

​

​

Want the exact indicators to track M2 velocity in real-time? 

​​

​

Real-Time M2 Velocity Indicators: The Bitcoin Trigger Watchlist

To anticipate when the "hoarded money flood" hits Bitcoin, track these 5 real-time metrics—the early warning system for dollar debasement and crypto’s hyper-bull phase.

1. 💵 M2 Money Supply (St. Louis Fed FRED Data)

• What to watch: Monthly % change in M2 (cash + deposits + money markets).

• Trigger: Sustained >0.5% monthly growth (indicates Fed/Treasury stealth printing).

• Source: FRED M2 Chart

2. 🏦 Reverse Repo Market Drain (NY Fed Data)

• What to watch: Daily reverse repo balances (cash parked at the Fed).

• Trigger: A drop below $200B (means banks are deploying liquidity → inflation fuel).

• Source: NY Fed Reverse Repo

3. 📉 Treasury Yield Curve Control (10Y-2Y Spread)

• What to watch: Inversion (>0.5% negative) or Fed explicit YCC announcements.

• Trigger: Fed caps long-term yields → money printers turn on.

• Source: Treasury Yield Curve

4. 🛢️ Commodity Supercycle (Oil + Copper Prices)

• What to watch: Brent crude >$100/barrel + Copper >$5/lb.

• Why: Rising commodities = early inflation signal → M2 velocity picks up.

• Source: Bloomberg Commodities

5. 🏛️ Treasury Auction Failures (Primary Dealer Participation)

• What to watch: Bid-to-cover ratios <2.0x in 10Y/30Y auctions.

• Trigger: Fed forced to buy bonds → QE restarts.

• Source: Treasury Auction Results

​

The Countdown Timeline

​

Phase                  Signals                                                    Bitcoin Impact

2024 (Now)         M2 flat, reverse repo >$300B                  $100K–$150K consolidation

Early 2025           Reverse repo <$200B, oil spikes            $200K breakout

Late 2025            YCC announced, auction failures            $350K+ hyperinflation hedge

2026+                 M2 velocity >1.5x, CBDC panic               $500K–$1M+

​

How to Position

• Now: Accumulate BTC below $120K; buy silver/miners as inflation canaries.

• 2025: Rotate into physical BTC (avoid ETF counterparty risk).

• 2026: Hold unstoppable assets (BTC, gold, land) as fiat crumbles.

• ​

"When M2 velocity wakes up, Bitcoin won’t just rise—it will rewrite the monetary system.

​

Source:

Rich Dad Poor Dad Author Warns of Market Bubble, Says Bitcoin Could ‘Bust’ Soon

​

​