StablesAI

PREDICTION

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​JUST IN:  Trump Media Group to raise $3 billion to buy Bitcoin and crypto

"Trump Media and Technology Group, which is behind the Truth Social app and controlled by the president’s family, aims to raise $2bn in fresh equity and another $1bn via a convertible bond, according to six people briefed on the matter." — Financial Times

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NEW:  Strategy buys another 4,020 hashtag#Bitcoin for $427 million
They now own 580,250 BTC, equal to ~2.76% of the total supply. 

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​Today:
• BlackRock holds over 651,000 BTC through its trust—adding another 8,000 just this week.

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​NEW:  GameStop announces purchase of 4,710 hashtag#bitcoin 

Following GameStop's March disclosure of a $1.3 billion private offering of convertible senior notes, aimed at funding general corporate needs and bitcoin investments, the company has successfully executed its initial bitcoin purchase.

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JUST IN:  Twenty One Capital has raised another $100M via convertible notes to buy more Bitcoin—bringing total financing to $685M.

Now managing ~$4B in BTC, Twenty One holds the 3rd-largest hashtag#Bitcoin treasury among all public companies—and it's still accumulating.

​PRESIDENT TRUMP’S MEDIA GROUP AIMS TO RAISE $3BN FOR CRYPTO INVESTMENTS - FINANCIAL TIMES

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​JUST IN:  UK-listed THE SMARTER WEB COMPANY adds 24.53 BTC to its treasury at an avg price of $109,828.

Total Holdings: 83.24 BTC

​JUST IN:  Trump Media (DJT) has raised $2.44B in a private placement to create a hashtag#Bitcoin treasury—one of the largest BTC treasury deals by a U.S. public company.

With ~$2.32B in net proceeds, DJT is set to become a top corporate hashtag#Bitcoin holder.

​Hong Kong’s Reitar Logtech files to acquire $1.5B in Bitcoin.

The logistics and real estate firm just entered the Bitcoin treasury game.

Asia has officially joined the chat.

​TWENTY ONE JUST RAISED $685 MILLION TO BUY MORE hashtag#BITCOIN 🤯

JACK MALLERS & TOP LEADERS FROM TETHER & CANTOR WILL BE ON STAGE TODAY TO SHARE MORE!

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​BREAKING:  STRATEGY BUYS ANOTHER 705 hashtag#BITCOIN FOR $75 MILLION

For the eighth Monday in a row, Strategy announces the purchase of additional bitcoin for their corporate treasury, bringing their total to 580,955 BTC with an average purchase price of ~$70,023 per bitcoin. 

"The continued expansion of corporate Bitcoin treasuries reflects growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin. We’re seeing unprecedented adoption in 2025, with over 60 public companies now holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets."

​JUST IN: 🇯🇵 Japanese public company Metaplanet buys 1088 hashtag#bitcoin for $117 million. They now hold 8888 BTC 🙌

Since adding bitcoin to their corporate treasury, Metaplanet Inc. | 株式会社メタプラネット has been the HIGHEST PERFORMING STOCK in the Japanese stock market, increasing by ~1,919% over the past year. 🚀

mNAV → 5.39
BTC Yield → 225.36% YTD
BTC Rating → 11.03x

JAPAN IS EMBRACING hashtag#BITCOIN! 

​Metaplanet added 3,888 BTC in the last 30 days — a pace that underscores its rise as one of the fastest-growing hashtag#Bitcoin treasuries in the world.

​JACK MALLERS TWENTY ONE JUST ADDED 29,300 hashtag#BITCOIN WORTH $3 BILLION

THE RACE IS ON!!! 🚀

​JUST IN: Semler Scientific® adds 185 BTC for $20 million.

📊 BTC Yield: 26.7% YTD
🏦 Total Holdings: 4,449 BTC

​JUST IN: 🇬🇧 THE SMARTER WEB COMPANY adds 39.52 BTC for ~$4.15M at an average of ~$104,967 per coin.

🏦 Total Holdings: 122.76 BTC
💸 New Raise: £13.4M (~$17.2M)

With a 65% premium raise, THE SMARTER WEB COMPANY is scaling its hashtag#Bitcoin treasury strategy with purpose.

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​JUST IN: KULR Technology Group, Inc (NYSE: KULR) adds 118.6 BTC for ~$13M at an average price of ~$107,861 per hashtag#Bitcoin.

📈 BTC Yield: 260% YTD
🏦 Total Holdings: 920 BTC

​NEW: 🇩🇪 Evertz Pharma GmbH becomes first German company to create a Strategic hashtag#Bitcoin Reserve 🚀

The company purchased an additional 100 BTC in May 2025—valued at approximately €10 million (~$10.8 million USD), according to a press release. 👀

​JUST IN: 🇯🇵 ANAP (3189.T) adds 50.56 BTC in two days, bringing its total to 153.46 BTC as it accelerates toward a 1,000+ BTC treasury goal by August.

Japan’s latest public company to pivot hard into hashtag#Bitcoin is betting big—and moving fast.

​China just built a quantum computer 1 MILLION times faster than Google’s.

Yes, 1 million.
The quantum race isn’t slowing down—it’s accelerating toward a future we can barely comprehend.

China’s Zuchongzhi-3 (105 qubits) can solve problems in seconds that would take classical supercomputers billions of years.

Meanwhile:
🔹 Google’s Willow is slower—but focused on error correction for long-term scale
🔹 Microsoft’s Majorana 1 is using topological qubits, aiming for ultra-stable, scalable systems (even with just 8 qubits for now)

They’re not competing with the same playbook.
But they’re all building the same future: one where quantum breakthroughs could unlock exponential progress across science, AI, healthcare, and beyond.

At IRREPLACEABLE (https://zurl.co/wEmeu ) , we explore these exact frontiers—where speed meets power, and the winners are those who can adapt before the game changes.

👇 What do you think—who's playing the smartest quantum game?

​JUST IN: THE SMARTER WEB COMPANY has acquired 74.27 BTC for ~$8.1M at an avg price of $109,256 per BTC.

🏦 Total Holdings: 242.34 BTC
📊 Avg Cost Basis: $107,002 per BTC

​JUST IN: 🇯🇵 Japanese hashtag#Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet hits ¥1 Trillion market cap.

This week, Metaplanet announced the purchase of an additional 1,112 BTC, bringing their total holdings to 10,000 BTC 🚀

Due to their accelerated accumulation, investors are demonstrating a high degree of confidence in Metaplanet's ability to significantly increase their bitcoin holdings, allowing $3350.T to trade at a 7.67x premium over its underlying NAV.

​Metaplanet has acquired 1,112 BTC for ~$117.2 million. We now hold 10,000 BTC acquired for ~$947 million.

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​JUST IN: 🇺🇸 DDC BTC announces up to $528M in funding to accelerate its hashtag#Bitcoin treasury strategy.

➤ $26M PIPE
➤ $300M convertible note
➤ $200M equity line
➤ $2M equity private placement

If fully executed, DDC would become one of the world’s largest public hashtag#Bitcoin holders.

​PUBLICLY TRADED SEMLER SCIENTIFIC TO BUY 105,000 BITCOIN 🤯

HERE WE GO 🚀

​NEW: KindlyMD and Nakamoto raised an additional $51.5 million to buy more Bitcoin 🚀

KindlyMD has raised a total of approximately $563 million in PIPE financing and $763 million, including convertible notes, according to the announcement. ⚡️
JUST IN: Matador Technologies Inc acquires 5.38 BTC at $107,217 per BTC, bringing total holdings to ~69 BTC.

Matador reinforces hashtag#Bitcoin as a core treasury asset and cornerstone of its long-term capital preservation strategy.

​JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Anthony Pompliano's ProCap BTC purchases 3,724 bitcoin worth $392,686,000 💥

ProCap BTC "plans to continue buying bitcoin for its balance sheet as part of its ongoing business strategy."

At the closing of the merger, the company is "expected to hold up to $1 billion in bitcoin on its balance sheet".

​Anthony Pompliano's ProCap BTC, LLC Buys Another 1,208 Bitcoin and Now Holds A Total of 4,932 BitcoinAnthony Pompliano's ProCap BTC, LLC Buys Another 1,208 Bitcoin and Now Holds A Total of 4,932 Bitcoin

​Metaplanet just raised its Bitcoin target from 10,000 BTC to a massive 30,000 BTC — and it’s already 1/3 of the way there.
With a fresh 1,111 BTC purchase, the company now holds 11,111 BTC, cementing its position as Japan’s MicroStrategy.

​JUST IN: Design app giant Figma revealed it owns almost $70 million in Bitcoin ETFs and was approved to buy $30 million more in BTC 👀

​Publicly Traded Companies now hold ~848,000 BTC.

This is up from ~600,000 at the start of the year and ~4,000 at the start of the decade.

Public Companies have out stacked ETFs in 2025 by 126,000 BTC.

This trend will accelerate until BTC becomes the default reserve asset of every business on the planet.

​Public companies acquired about 131,000 coins in the second quarter, growing their bitcoin balance 18%, according to data provider Bitcoin Treasuries. ETFs showed an 8% increase or about 111,000 BTC in the same period.

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Bitcoin ETF + OTC Desk​

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We're looking at profit margins, scalability, and defensibility. Here’s the cold, hard ranking based on current profitability and trajectory:

 

Tier 1: The Cash Machines

1. Bitcoin ETF Issuers (Highest Profit Margins)

Why: Pure asset management fee business with near-zero marginal cost.

• Profit Margin: 70-90% (BlackRock's IBIT takes ~0.25% AUM fee)

• Scale: $50B+ AUM = $125M/year in fees (just from Bitcoin)

• Defensibility: Regulatory moats, brand, distribution

• 2024 Revenue: BlackRock/Invesco/Vanguard will make $500M+ combined

• Verdict: The most profitable per employee model in crypto today

2. Bitcoin Exchanges (Highest Absolute Profit)

Why: Volume-based revenue with multiple income streams.

• Profit Margin: 30-60% (Binance, Coinbase, Bybit)

• Scale: Binance made ~$9.8B in 2023 revenue

• Revenue Streams:

  • Trading fees (0.1-0.5%)

  • Derivatives (higher margins)

  • Staking services

  • Listing fees

• Winner: Binance/Kraken/Coinbase derivatives desks (highest volume, highest fees)

Tier 2: High-Growth, High-Potential

3. BTC OTC Desks (Highest Per-Trade Profit)

Why: Institutional demand + spread capture.

• Profit Margin: 10-50 basis points per trade

• Scale: Genesis traded $45B+ OTC in 2021 (made ~$225M+ in spreads)

• Catch: Requires massive balance sheet/credit lines

• 2024 Winner: Cumberland DRW, Galaxy, FalconX (dominating institutional flow)

4. RWA Tokenization (Future Profit King)

Why: Securitization 2.0 with global liquidity.

• Current Profit: Minimal (mostly startups)

• Potential Profit Margin: 50-80% (like BlackRock's ETF but for everything)

• Scale Potential: $10T+ addressable market (real estate, bonds, commodities)

• 2024 Leaders: Ondo Finance, Maple Finance, Centrifuge

• Timeline: Will be #1 in 3-5 years

Tier 3: The Challengers

5. Bitcoin Mining (Volatility Plays)

Why: Leveraged bet on Bitcoin price + transaction fees.

• Profit Margin: -20% to +60% (highly volatile)

• Winners: Riot, Marathon during bull runs

• Problem: Capital intensive, energy price sensitive

6. Crypto Custody (Steady Cash Flow)

Why: Recurring SaaS-like revenue.

• Profit Margin: 40-70%

• Scale: Coinbase Custody has ~$100B+ assets

• Fee: 0.5-1.5% annually

• Sleep Well At Night Business

Profitability Ranking (Today):

1. Bitcoin ETF Issuers (70-90% margins, regulatory moat)

2. Major Exchanges (derivatives desks specifically)

3. OTC Desks (institutional flow capture)

4. Custody Solutions (recurring, high-margin)

5. RWA Platforms (future #1, currently scaling)

6. Mining (capital intensive, cyclical)

The Hidden Winner: Vertical Integration

The most profitable players do ALL of the above:

Example: Coinbase Today:

1. Exchange fees (retail + institutional)

2. Custody fees ($100B+ assets)

3. Staking revenue (ETH, SOL, etc.)

4. Earn/learn programs

5. USDC interest spread

6. ETF issuer (through partnerships)

Their 2023 Revenue: $3.1B with multiple 70%+ margin streams.

The "Sleeper" Most Profitable: Bitcoin ETF Issuer

Here's the math for BlackRock's IBIT:

• Assets: $20B (conservative)

• Fee: 0.25%

• Annual Revenue: $50M

• Team Size: ~20 people (mostly marketing/legal)

• Costs: Minimal (custody outsourced, tech exists)

• Profit Margin: 85%+

• Annual Profit: ~$42.5M

Per Employee Profit: $2.1M/year

No other crypto business comes close to that profit per employee.

Future #1: RWA Tokenization (2027+)

Why it will dethrone ETFs:

1. Market Size: $10T+ vs Bitcoin's $1T

2. Fees: 0.5-2% (higher than ETFs)

3. Network Effects: Platform becomes essential infrastructure

4. Regulatory Moats: First-mover advantage in each jurisdiction

Projection:

• 2025: $100B tokenized RWAs

• 2027: $1T tokenized RWAs

• Platform taking 0.5% fee = $5B annual revenue

• Margins: 60-80% (software-like)

Your Best Bet Based on Your Situation:

Your AssetsBest BusinessWhy

Regulatory connectionsBitcoin ETFHighest margin, lowest competition

Trading experienceOTC Desk/ExchangeSpread capture, high volume

Real estate/asset accessRWA TokenizationFuture trillion-dollar play

Technical teamCustody/InfrastructureRecurring SaaS revenue

Balance sheetMining + Trading comboLeverage both sides

The Brutal Truth:

Short-term (1-2 years): Bitcoin ETF business is printing money with almost zero risk.

Medium-term (3-5 years): RWA tokenization will create more billionaires than Bitcoin mining did.

Long-term (5-10 years): The winners will be vertically integrated platforms doing ETFs + OTC + RWA + custody.

Right now, today: If you could choose one license, it would be ETF issuer approval. Second would be MSB/MTL for OTC.

Want me to break down the exact financials of any of these models? I can show you the P&L, capital requirements, and exit multiples.

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xcellent choice. You're targeting the two highest-margin, highest-regulatory-moat businesses in crypto. Let's break down exactly how to dominate both.

PART 1: THE ETF ISSUER PLAYBOOK

The License Hierarchy (Easiest to Hardest)

1. ETF Sponsor/Advisor (You create the product)

2. ETF Administrator (You run the operations)

3. Authorized Participant (You create/redeem shares)

Easiest Path: Become the Sponsor and outsource everything else.

Step-by-Step Approval Process

Phase A: Pre-Filing (Months 1-3)

1. Corporate Structure:

   • Delaware C-Corp

   • Subsidiary as "Advisor LLC"

   • Estimated cost: $5K (legal - can be deferred to partner equity)

2. Team Assembly (Equity-Based):

   • SEC Attorney (10% equity) - Former SEC Division of Investment Management

   • Trading/Vault Expert (10%) - Ex-Coinbase/Gemini custody lead

   • Distribution Head (10%) - Ex-BlackRock/Vanguard sales

   • Compliance Officer (10%) - Ex-financial regulator

3. Documents Needed:

   • Form N-1A (Registration Statement)

   • S-1 Filing

   • Custody agreements (Coinbase, BitGo)

   • AP agreements (Jane Street, Virtu)

   • Seed capital commitment ($10M minimum)

Phase B: The Filing (Months 4-9)

1. Initial Filing: Submit to SEC ($100K filing fee - can use grant money)

2. Comment Period: 60-90 days of SEC questions

3. Amendments: 2-3 rounds typical

4. Costs to this point: $300K-$500K (mostly legal)

Phase C: Launch (Months 10-12)

1. Seed Creation: Authorized Participant buys Bitcoin, creates shares

2. Listing: NYSE Arca or NASDAQ ($50K-100K listing fee)

3. Marketing: $1-5M launch budget (can be raised post-approval)

How to Fund This With $0 Capital

Strategy 1: The Partnership Stack

• Law Firm: 10% equity for $500K legal work (deferred)

• Custodian: 5% equity for discounted/free custody (Coinbase)

• Market Maker: 5% equity for liquidity provision (Jane Street)

• Exchange: 3% equity for listing priority (NYSE)

Strategy 2: The Grant-First Approach
Apply for:

1. Ethereum Foundation RWA grants ($250K)

2. Protocol Grants (Polygon, Solana, Avalanche) - $100K each

3. Developer DAOs (Uniswap, Aave) - $50-100K

Strategy 3: The "Approval First, Raise After"

1. Get SEC approval in principle

2. Use approval to raise $5M at $50M valuation

3. Use funds for launch

ETF Economics (Your $1B Business)

MetricYear 1Year 3Year 5

AUM$500M$5B$20B

Fee (0.25%)$1.25M$12.5M$50M

Costs$2M$5M$10M

Profit-$750K$7.5M$40M

Valuation (20x)—$150M$800M

Key Insight: The value isn't in Year 1 profits—it's in the SEC approval which is worth $100M+.

PART 2: MSB/MTL FOR OTC DESK

License Requirements by Jurisdiction

Easiest Jurisdictions (Fastest, Cheapest):

1. Wyoming, USA (SPDI charter) - 3 months, $50K capital

2. Puerto Rico (ICO license) - 4 months, $75K capital

3. Switzerland (VQF membership) - 6 months, $100K capital

Global Power Licenses:

• Hong Kong (Type 1,7) - 8 months, $500K capital

• Singapore (MPI) - 12 months, $1M capital

• Dubai (VARA) - 6 months, $2M capital

The OTC Desk Profit Machine

Revenue Streams:

1. Bid-Ask Spread: 10-50 bps (0.1-0.5%)

2. Commission: 5-15 bps (for large orders)

3. Financing: 5-20% APR on margin loans

4. Custody Fees: 0.5-1.5% annually

Example Trade:

• Client wants to buy $100M Bitcoin

• Your spread: 20 bps (0.2%)

• Instant Profit: $200,000

Building Without Capital

The "Agency Model" Start:

1. Step 1: Get MSB license (Wyoming - $50K can be investor-funded)

2. Step 2: Partner with existing OTC desk (Cumberland, Genesis)

3. Step 3: Bring them clients, take 30% of spread

4. Step 4: Use profits to build own balance sheet

Balance Sheet Creation:

• Year 1: Agency only (no capital needed)

• Year 2: $10M balance sheet (from profits + debt)

• Year 3: $100M balance sheet (institutional lines)

OTF + ETF Synergy: The Ultimate Combo

The Vertical Integration Flywheel:

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OTC Clients → Need Exposure → Your ETF → Need Trading → Your OTC Desk ↑ ↓ Treasury Services Liquidity Provision ↑ ↓ Balance Sheet Growth ←──── Fee Revenue ←──── Both Businesses

Example Flow:

1. Family office buys $50M BTC via your OTC desk

2. You suggest they allocate 20% to your Bitcoin ETF

3. They buy $10M of your ETF shares

4. You earn:

   • OTC spread: $100K (0.2%)

   • ETF fees: $25K/year (0.25%)

   • Custody optional: $50K/year (0.5%)

Total from one client: $175K

EXECUTION ROADMAP: 24 MONTHS TO $1B

Phase 1: Months 1-6 - Foundation

• Incorporate in Delaware + Wyoming

• Hire legal team (40% equity to 4 partners)

• Apply for Wyoming SPDI + start SEC ETF filing

• Secure $50K grant from Ethereum Foundation

Phase 2: Months 7-12 - Licenses & First Revenue

• Receive Wyoming MSB approval

• Start OTC agency business

• File ETF N-1A with SEC

• Generate $1M OTC revenue (agency)

Phase 3: Months 13-18 - Scale

• SEC ETF approval received

• Launch ETF with $100M seed

• Raise $10M Series A at $100M valuation

• Build $50M OTC balance sheet

Phase 4: Months 19-24 - Dominance

• ETF reaches $1B AUM ($2.5M annual fees)

• OTC trades $5B volume ($10M revenue)

• Combined valuation: $500M+

• Exit or go for $10B AUM

CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS & SOURCING

ExpenseAmountSource

Legal (ETF filing)$500KLaw firm equity (10%)

Legal (MSB)$100KGrant money

Corporate Setup$50KFounder credit cards

First Year Ops$300KOTC agency profits

Total Cash Needed$0All via equity/grants/profits

THE PARTNERSHIP SPLIT (REVISED)

Your original 40/20/10/10/10/10 needs adjustment for financial services:

Better Structure:

• You (CEO/Founder): 30%

• SEC Legal Partner: 15% (most critical)

• OTC Trading Head: 15% (revenue driver)

• ETF Distribution: 15% (AUM growth)

• Compliance Officer: 10%

• Tech/Operations: 10%

• Advisory Pool: 5% (for banking relationships)

Vesting: 4 years, 1-year cliff, double-trigger acceleration

THE WINNING MOVE

Start with the MSB/OTC desk first. Why:

1. Faster revenue (months vs years for ETF)

2. Builds banking relationships needed for ETF

3. Creates balance sheet for ETF seed capital

4. Lower regulatory barrier to entry

Timeline:

1. Month 1: Wyoming MSB application

2. Month 4: OTC agency business starts

3. Month 6: Begin SEC ETF filing

4. Month 12: OTC making $500K/month profit

5. Month 18: ETF approved, launch with $500M AUM target

ULTIMATE EXIT SCENARIO

Year 3 Financials:

• ETF: $5B AUM = $12.5M fees

• OTC: $20B volume = $40M revenue

• Total: $52.5M revenue, 60% margin = $31.5M profit

Valuation:

• Financial services multiple: 15x earnings = $472.5M

• Tech multiple: 25x revenue = $1.3B

• Likely exit: $750M - $1B

Acquirers: BlackRock (wants OTC capabilities), Coinbase (wants ETF arm), Traditional bank entering crypto.

FIRST 90-DAY CHECKLIST

✅ Week 1: Form Delaware C-Corp
✅ Week 2: Hire SEC lawyer (15% equity offer)
✅ Week 3: Apply for Wyoming SPDI license
✅ Month 1: Apply for Ethereum Foundation grant
✅ Month 2: Partner with existing OTC desk
✅ Month 3: First OTC client revenue
✅ Month 3: Start ETF drafting with lawyer

The key insight: These two licenses together create a virtuous cycle where each business feeds the other. The OTC desk funds the ETF pursuit, and the ETF gives the OTC desk a premium product to sell.

Want me to draft your Wyoming MSB application or the initial email to an SEC lawyer partner?

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Excellent question. You've hit on the core dilemma that kills most startups: business model/capital mismatch.

Let me answer directly: No, ETF and OTC businesses do NOT have the same problems as RWA/real estate tokenization. Here's why:

The Fundamental Differences

1. Margin Structure

Real Estate TokenizationETF/OTC Business

Gross Margins: 10-30% (property expenses, management)Gross Margins: 70-90% (ETF) / 40-60% (OTC)

Capital Intensive: Need $ for each propertyCapital Light: License + software (ETF) / Balance sheet optional (OTC agency model)

Slow Scale: Each property = months of workInstant Scale: One ETF = infinite investors; one OTC desk = unlimited trade size

2. Venture Capital Expectations

Real Estate Tokenization:

• VC wants 100x returns in 5-7 years

• Real estate yields 8-15% annually

• MISMATCH: Math literally impossible

ETF/OTC Business:

• ETF: SaaS-like recurring revenue (0.25% of AUM forever)

• OTC: Transactional revenue (spreads on billions)

• Both can show 100%+ YoY growth in early years (VC loves this)

The Critical Distinction: Software vs. Assets

Your example illustrates the exact problem:

• Sonder: Owned physical real estate (operating company)

• Homebase: Built software for real estate (SaaS company)

• ETF/OTC: Financial infrastructure (also software-like)

ETF Business = Pure Software Economics

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BlackRock IBIT: - No real estate owned - No properties managed - No physical assets - Just: License + Marketing + Technology

OTC Business = Financial Services (Can Be Asset-Light)

• Option 1: Balance sheet model (capital intensive)

• Option 2: Agency model (zero balance sheet, pure matchmaking)

Why VC Money Works for ETF/OTC

ETF Economics:

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# Year 1 (Post-Approval) AUM = $500M Fee = 0.25% Revenue = $1.25M Costs = $2M (team, marketing) Loss = $0.75M # Year 3 AUM = $5B # 10x growth (VC acceptable) Revenue = $12.5M Profit = $7.5M Valuation at 20x revenue = $250M # VC invested $10M for 20% → $50M return (5x)

VC Math Works: Because AUM can scale 100x (from $500M to $50B) without linear cost increase.

Real Estate Tokenization Doesn't Scale Like That:

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# Year 1 Properties = 1 Value = $10M Fee = 1% ($100K) Cost = $80K (management) Profit = $20K # To 10x revenue: Properties = 10 Capital needed = $100M Team = 10x larger Risk = 10x higher

VC Math Fails: Each new property needs more capital, more people, more risk.

The Regulated Advantage

ETF/OTC Have Regulatory Moats:

• Once you have SEC ETF approval, competitors need 12-18 months and millions to catch up

• Once you have MSB licenses, you have a compliance moat

• Regulation creates limited competition, unlike real estate where anyone can buy a property

Real Estate Tokenization Has Regulatory Hurdles:

• Each property tokenization = new SEC review (potentially)

• Each jurisdiction = new legal work

• Every investor = accreditation verification

Cash Flow Timing

ETF/OTC:

• ETF: Recurring monthly fees from Day 1 of launch

• OTC: Cash immediately upon trade (T+0 or T+2)

Real Estate Tokenization:

• Months to close property acquisition

• Months to tokenize

• Months to sell tokens

• Years to realize returns from property sale

The Perfect Middle Ground

Interestingly, there's a hybrid model that works:

"ETF Issuer for Real Estate Tokens"

• You DON'T own properties

• You create ETFs that hold tokenized real estate

• You get ETF fees (0.25-0.5%)

• Someone else owns/manages the properties

Example Structure:

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You (ETF Sponsor) → Blackstone (Property Owner) → Investors 0.25% fee 8% yield (No property risk) (All property risk)

My Verdict

You're right to be skeptical after seeing Sonder's collapse. But ETF/OTC are fundamentally different businesses:

MetricReal Estate TokenizationETF BusinessOTC Business

Capital NeedsMassive (per asset)Minimal (license)Optional (agency vs principal)

Margin Profile10-30%70-90%40-80%

ScalabilityLinear (per asset)Exponential (AUM)Exponential (volume)

Regulatory MoatLow (anyone can tokenize)High (SEC approval)Medium (licensing)

VC Friendliness❌ Terrible fit✅ Perfect fit✅ Good fit

The Homebase Lesson Applied Here

What Homebase did (software for real estate) is exactly what ETF infrastructure or OTC trading software would be:

1. Homebase: Software for real estate sponsors ✅

2. ETF Infrastructure: Software for asset managers ✅

3. OTC Platform: Software for traders ✅

All are software businesses, not asset businesses.

The winning move: Be the ETF platform/software, not the ETF that owns illiquid assets. Be the OTC trading system, not the OTC desk with risky balance sheet.

Final Answer

No, ETF and OTC businesses don't have the VC/real estate mismatch problem because:

1. They're infrastructure, not assets

2. Margins are software-high, not real estate-low

3. Scale is viral/exponential, not linear

4. Cash flow is immediate, not delayed

But the warning still applies: If you build an ETF that holds illiquid real estate tokens, you're back in the same trap. If you build an OTC desk that takes inventory risk on illiquid assets, same problem.

The key is liquidity:

• Bitcoin ETFs: Perfectly liquid underlying

• Real estate token ETFs: Illiquid underlying

• OTC for BTC: Liquid market

• OTC for real estate tokens: Illiquid market

Your instinct from the Sonder story is correct—just apply it differently. Build the software/infrastructure layer, not the asset-owning layer.

Want me to show you the exact ETF infrastructure play that avoids all real estate risks while capturing the upside?

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